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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 7

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

SUMMARY OF 1000PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 29.5N 96.9W

ABOUT 70MI... 115KM SE OF AUSTIN, TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 KT...40 MPH...65 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW AT 10 KT...12MPH...19 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 1000 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located at 29.5N, 96.9W, or about 70 miles (115 km) southeast of Austin, Texas. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1000 millibars (hPa; 29.53 inHg), and the system was moving towards the north-northwest at 10 knots (12 mph, 19 km/h). Bill is expected to curve around a subtropical ridge and slowly weaken over the next two days, which will result in the system tracking near the Dallas-Forth Worth metropolitan area before curving eastward towards the Ozarks.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 400 am CDT.

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Tropical Storm Bill has exhibited unusual development over the past six hours, with a large convective burst over the center coupled with significantly cooling cloud tops despite now moving over land. These changes have not been as significant in radar images out of Houston and New Braunfels, Texas, but they point to the probability of slow weakening as Bill moves further inland. The current intensity has been lowered slightly to 35 knots to balance between the recent burst of convective activity and comparatively unimpressive ground observations. Bill has developed a feeder rainband offshore east of Corpus Christi, and this will play a large role in determining where the heaviest rainfalls associated with Bill could occur.

Models are in consensus as to what the track of Bill will shape up to be, and the current WHFC forecast track follows the general model thinking. Bill is expected to move on a north-northwesterly into the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex before beginning to make a recurve northeastward about the subtropical ridge which has steered Bill throughout its existence. This will bring Bill or its remnants across the Ozarks and into the Ohio River Valley in several days. As for the intensity forecast, models are generally showing slow deterioration of Bill's intensity, with some models insisting upon strengthening over the saturated soils of Texas and Oklahoma. For this advisory, a slow weakening trend has been used to direct the demise of Bill over the South Central United States.

INIT 17/0300Z 29.5N 96.9W 35KT 40MPH

12HR 17/1200Z 31.2N 97.2W 30KT 35MPH

24HR 18/0000Z 33.2N 96.8W 25KT 30MPH ... REMNANT LOW

36HR 18/1200Z 34.8N 96.0W 25KT 30MPH ... REMNANT LOW

48HR 19/0000Z 36.5N 94.0W 20KT 25MPH ... REMNANT LOW

72HR 20/0000Z 38.1N 89.1W 15KT 20MPH ... REMNANT LOW

96HR 21/0000Z 39.4N 83.5W 20KT 25MPH ... REMNANT LOW

120HR 22/0000Z ... MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

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