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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 6

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...BILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 28.4N 96.8W

ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 KT...50 MPH...85 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES... AT 8 KT...9 MPH...15 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 400 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located at 28.4N, 96.8W, or about 25 miles (40 km) west of Port O'Connor, Texas. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 999 millibars (hPa; 29.50 inHg), and the system was moving north-northwest at 8 knots (9 mph, 15 km/h). Bill is expected to gradually weaken over the South Plains over the coming days. However, the threat for gusty winds, torrential rainfall capable of producing life-threatening inland flooding, and storm surge along the coastline will continue.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 1000 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster YE

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Tropical Storm Bill made landfall at around 1640 UTC time today in on Matagorda Island, Texas with winds of 55 knts. Since then, an inland decay rate would support cutting the intensity down to 45 knts from 55 knts. Gradual weakening is expected, though as mentioned in previous discussions, the rate is somewhat uncertain. In fact, the UKMET last night shows intensification.


The track forecast for Bill is simple for a change. The storm has taken on a slow northwesterly motion this morning as it rounds the southwestern periphery of a potent mid-level ridge across the Southeast United States that is bringing extreme heat to the Carolinas. This motion is expected for the next 36 to 48 hours. Thereafter, an approaching trough should recurve Bill toward the north and later to the northeast. All models are in good agreement, and the track forecast is an update from the previous one.

INIT 16/2100Z 28.4N 96.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 17/0600Z 29.8N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

24H 17/1800Z 31.9N 97.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

36H 18/0600Z 33.5N 97.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND/REMNT LOW

48H 18/1800Z 34.8N 95.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND/REMNT LOW

72H 19/1800Z 36.5N 92.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND/REMNT LOW

96H 20/1800Z 39.1N 85.9W 15 KT 20 MPH...INLAND/REMNT LOW

120H 21/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$

Forecaster YE

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