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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 5

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...BILL SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST... ...IMPACTS WILL EXTEND FAR INLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1000AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 28.2N 96.4W

ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 KT...65 MPH...100 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES... AT 9 KT...10 MPH...17 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 1000 am CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located at 28.2N, 96.4W, or about 10 miles (15 km) south of Port O'Connor, Texas. Maximum sustained winds were 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 997 millibars (hPa; 29.44 inHg), and the system was moving northwest at 9 knots (10 mph, 17 km/h). No change in strength is expected as the center of Bill makes landfall along the southeastern Texas coastline over the next few hours, with steady weakened expected inland.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 400 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Bill has strengthened slightly on its approach to the Texas coastline. The Air Force Reverse reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone has observed a slow fall in pressure this morning, down to 997 mb in the latest Vortex Data Message. Flight-level winds have held steady near 60 kt to the northeast of the center, with peak non-contaminated surface winds near 55 kt. Despite satellite intensity estimates of T2.0/30 kt from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt in accordance with in-situ observations. The center of Bill is about to make landfall south of Port O'Connor, so no further intensification is expected. Once inland, the system should slowly decay into a remnant low. The forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one.

The track forecast for Bill continues to be straightforward. The storm has taken on more a northwesterly motion this morning as it rounds the southwestern periphery of a potent mid-level ridge across the Southeast United States. This motion is expected for the next 36 to 48 hours. Thereafter, an approaching trough should recurve Bill toward the north and eventually northeast. All models are in good agreement, and the updated track forecast is essentially a blend of global and regional models.

INIT 16/1500Z 28.2N 96.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

12H 17/0000Z 29.6N 97.0W 45 KT 55 MPH...INLAND

24H 17/1200Z 31.5N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

36H 18/0000Z 33.4N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND/REMNT LOW

48H 18/1200Z 35.0N 96.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND/REMNT LOW

72H 19/1200Z 36.7N 96.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND/REMNT LOW

96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

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