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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 4

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

0400AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

... BILL MOVING CLOSER TO LAND ...

SUMMARY OF 0400AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 27.9N 95.2W

ABOUT 100MI... 160KM SSW OF GALVESTON, TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 KT...60 MPH...95 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES... AT 10 KT...11MPH...19 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 0400 am CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located at 27.9N, 95.2W, or about 100 miles (160 kilometers) south-southwest of Galveston, Texas. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1000 millibars (hPa; 29.53 inHg), and the system was moving west-northwest at 10 knots (14 mph, 22 km/h). Bill is expected to strengthen into a high-end tropical storm before making landfall near Freeport, Texas in 12 hours, before slowing decaying as it moves northward through East Texas.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 1000 am CDT.

$$ Forecaster Kalassak

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

0400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Bill's structure continues to improve, although its southeastern appendage has also increased in convective activity as well. The storm now has a relatively decent central dense overcast, and the center of the storm, which is now readily visible on the Galveston radar, appears to be located near the leading northwestern edge. It is significantly more well defined than yesterday. Dvorak classifications of Bill are not picking up on the structure very well and are giving weak returns of T2.0/30kt and T2.5/35kt, which have been disregarded in the face of better data in line with reconaissance flights from yesterday. This results in an initial intensity raised to 50 knots.

The storm has less than twelve hours to intensify before making landfall on the Texas coastline. Bill is not expected to intensify into a hurricane, but with relatively low shear and warm Gulf sea surface temperatures, the storm is expected to intensify in generally favorable conditions during the time it has undisturbed over water. This is not exactly evident via the WHFC intensity forecast, but Bill will likely peak at 55 knots or so in the next six to nine hours before moving inland. Otherwise the intensity forecast follows the same methodology as in the last package. Model consensus is readily available in the track forecast which brings the storm inland over Texas and much further inland where it recurves around a ridge and should become a post-tropical remnant low in around three days. This forecast track will follow model consensus which lies a bit west of the previous forecast.

INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 95.2W 50KT 60MPH

12HR 17/1800Z 29.0N 96.3W 45KT 55MPH ... INLAND

24HR 17/0600Z 30.7N 97.3W 35KT 40MPH ... INLAND

36HR 18/1800Z 32.5N 97.2W 30KT 35MPH ... INLAND

48HR 18/0600Z 35.0N 96.8W 25KT 30MPH ... INLAND

72HR 19/0600Z 37.2N 94.5W 20KT 25MPH ... REMNANT LOW

$$ Forecaster Kalassak

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