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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 3

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

SUMMARY OF 1000PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 27.3N 94.3W

ABOUT 140MI... 225KM SSE OF GALVESTON, TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 KT...50 MPH...70 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 12 KT...14MPH...22 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 1000 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located at 27.3N, 94.3W, or about 140 miles (225 kilometers) south-southeast of Galveston, Texas. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph, 70 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1001 millibars (hPa; 29.56 inHg), and the system was moving northwest at 12 knots (14 mph, 22 km/h). Bill is expected to strengthen into a high-end tropical storm before making landfall near Freeport, Texas in 12 hours, before slowing decaying as it moves northward through East Texas.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 400 am CDT.

$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

1000 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

Bill's convective appearance has changed significantly since the last advisory, with a central dense overcast now taking shape and the large eastern rainband that was present previously tappering off. Reconaissance data from this evening indicates a much more well defined center that is tight and not elongated as it had been previously, and despite lackluster subjective intensity estimates, recon also detected winds supportive of 50 knots and a pressure of 1001 millibars. Thus, the current intensity of Bill has been set to those parameters.

Bill has accelerated towards the northwestward this afternoon and evening as a result of the subtropical high centered over the Southeastern United States, which should give Bill only about 12 hours to strengthen. The current motion for this advisory as been set to 320/12. However, given the high sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and current organizational pattern of Bill, the tropical cyclone should be able to strengthen quite briskly before it strikes land... the current landfall intensity has been set to 60 knots, making Bill a high end tropical storm at landfall. After landfall, Bill is expected to curve northward and track acrross East Texas and move into the Ozarks. As models continue to depict abnormal strengthening or persistence over land, the WHFC intensity forecast accounts for this with a slow decay inland.

INIT 16/0300Z 27.3N 94.3W 45KT 50MPH

12HR 16/1200Z 28.8N 95.5W 60KT 70MPH ... MOVING INLAND NEAR FREEPORT

24HR 17/0000Z 30.4N 95.7W 40KT 45MPH ... INLAND

36HR 17/1200Z 32.2N 95.7W 30KT 35MPH ... INLAND

48HR 18/0000Z 35.1N 94.2W 25KT 30MPH ... INLAND

72HR 19/0000Z 37.1N 91.3W 20KT 25MPH ... REMNANT LOW


$$

Forecaster TheAustinMan

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