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Public advisoryEdit

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 14

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

4:00 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...WELL-ORGANIZED BUT WEAKENING CENTER OF BILL PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

SUMMARY OF 4:00 PM CDT...21:00 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION... 35.5N 94.6W

ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NW OF FORT SMITH, ARKANSAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...15 KT...20 MPH...30 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 KT...11 MPH...17 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 4:00 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Bill was located at 35.5N, 94.6W, or about 15 miles (25 kilometers) northwest of Fort Smith, Arkansas. Maximum sustained winds were 15 knots (20 mph, 30 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1004 millibars (hPa; 29.65 inHg), and the system was moving east-northeast at 9 knots (11 mph, 17 km/h).

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 1000 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

DiscussionEdit

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

4:00 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

I sound like a broken record at this point, but Bill continues to maintain a well-defined and closed low-level circulation as documented by the numerous mesonet stations across Oklahoma. However, surface observations from these sites indicate that Bill is gradually winding down, with maximum sustained winds near 20 mph and a minimum barometric pressure up to 1004 mb. Although convection persists near the center, it is weaker than what we have witnessed the past two days. All of this means that the cyclone is steadily losing its tropical characteristics. The updated forecast is largely unchanged from the previous in terms of track, but it indicates a quicker post-tropical transition. Regardless of designation, Bill is expected to produce heavy rainfall across the Central Plains into the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic over the coming days.

INIT 18/2100Z 35.5N 94.6W 15 KT 20 MPH

12H 19/0600Z 35.9N 93.9W 10 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

24H 19/1800Z 36.5N 92.1W 10 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

36H 20/0600Z 37.3N 89.3W 10 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

48H 20/1800Z 38.5N 85.9W 10 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

72H 21/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

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